[SIZE=+1]Quarterback Tiers of Heaven[/SIZE]
Last year was supposed to be the year of the quarterback in drafts. Everyone talked about how safe high quarterback picks were. Then Bernard Pollard happened.
There are compelling arguments for and against taking a quarterback early in drafts. Tom Brady's knee not withstanding, they are usually safer picks than running backs. But position scarcity devalues quarterbacks because there are so many quality options, and you only need to find one to start each week. No matter where you draft them, Brady's injury is a reminder of how important your QB2 position is.
One reason we like quarterback value this year: after Brady's injury last year, the top three are going for relatively cheap prices. You should be able to find a quality starter at a cheap price as long as you pay attention.
Tier One: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning
The big three. There isn't a lot of separation within this group, even though Brees will often go a round higher than the other two. The Saints are likely to throw less, but he's still the favorite to lead the league in attempts and yards. Brady is the riskiest pick, but has the highest ceiling, only two years removed from throwing 50 touchdowns. He's looked good, not great, in the preseason. (We worry about not stepping into throws.)
Manning is the safest pick, the equivalent of a comfortable old shoe. His lack of sizzle this season could make him the best value of this tier if he slips to round four. Again, there isn't a huge gap between these three.
We've seen Brady and Manning slip to the end of the third round, which is too far. They are better picks than many shaky second running backs and wide receivers. Brees is overvalued if taken in the top-15 picks.
Tier Two: Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo
It's odd to make a tier this small, but our projections had these two clearly above the rest of the QB1 field. Romo will be a good value outside the top-50 picks. He's been a fantasy star from day one and the impact of Terrell Owens' loss has been overrated. Rodgers looked fully formed in his first season as a starter. He has a creative pass-first coach and a great group of receivers. He's a very safe pick.
<!--RW-->Tier Three: Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub
As usual, it's not that hard to find a quality fantasy quarterback. That's why you don't need to reach for one too early in most drafts.
Rivers is rock solid, but his low attempt total erodes his margin for error. His touchdowns are likely to sink. McNabb looks primed for a huge season, but can be inconsistent week-to-week. Schaub will perform like a top-five player, but he's a big injury risk. And we don't want to overpay to count on Kurt Warner staying healthy again at 38 years old.</B>
These are the last of the quarterbacks we would consider every-week starters. If you take a quarterback from the top three tiers, taking a backup early is a luxury, not a necessity.
Tier Four: Kurt Warner, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Cassel
It's amazing how much talent there is outside of the top ten quarterbacks. All of these players have top-five potential, but aren't fully trustworthy.
The more we think about Warner, 39 and coming off hip surgery, the less excited we are. We'd put his over/under on games played around 13. Cutler could struggle initially in a new system with a poor supporting cast.
The Falcons will let Ryan throw more, but they will still be less aggressive than the average team. Palmer has topped the quarterback rankings before, but his elbow is a mystery and his supporting cast has been weakened. Still, we love his value based on where he's getting drafted. Huge upside for a cheap price.
Roethlisberger's career numbers have fluctuated wildly, so he's a good value coming off a down year. Don't worry about his offseason troubles. Cassel will throw plenty, but Randy Moss and Wes Welker didn't come with him to Kansas City. Still, we think concerns about his slow training camp are overblown. He's a fun boom or bust pick.
If you don't draft a quarterback in the first three tiers, make sure to get one here. It's not a bad idea to get two (or one from the tier below), and play the matchups. These aren't every-week starters just yet.
Tier Five: David Garrard, Trent Edwards, Kyle Orton, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselbeck, Brett Favre </B>
Garrard puts up steady weekly numbers, in part because of his running ability. He's a good player to pair with a boom-or-bust starter. Orton is a nice sleeper because of his teammates, coach, and schedule; don't overreact to his first preseason game.
Manning won't get you beat most weeks, but he'll suffer without Plaxico Burress. Edwards and Flacco are breakout candidates, but the receiver talent is much better in Buffalo. We like Buffalo's new no-huddle offense. Hasselbeck is likely to throw less than ever and is an injury risk. Brett Favre is just another guy in fantasy leagues and will get overvalued based on his name.
These are the best of the QB2s. Unless you get a quarterback from the top tier, you will ideally get your backup by this group.
Tier Six: Jake Delhomme, Shaun Hill, Brady Quinn, Marc Bulger, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Kerry Collins, Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford
Delhomme is in decline, but he will get you by as QB2s. Hill is likely to suffer with Mike Martz leaving town, and is facing heat from Alex Smith. Quinn is our favorite value pick in this tier, and will move up a few slots when he secures the Cleveland starting job.
Pennington and Collins could face threats to their jobs if they don't play well. Stafford and Sanchez aren't worth the risk as rookies.
If you don't get your QB2 before this tier, there's no need to rush to draft one of these guys. A few should be available very late.
Editor's Note: For more great daily info, follow Gregg Rosenthal, Evan Silva, Chris Wesseling, and Rotoworld football on Twitter.
Tier Seven: Byron Leftwich, Derek Anderson, Luke McCown, Alex Smith, Chad Henne, Daunte Culpepper
Leftwich will move up into the middle of tier six if he wins the Tampa. Anderson would be worth a look late in drafts if he can upset Quinn to start in Cleveland, which looks unlikely. Henne and Smith would be intriguing if they rose on the depth chart later in the year.
Tier Eight: Sage Rosenfels, Vince Young, Pat White, Matt Leinart, Seneca Wallace, Jeff Garcia, Colt Brennan, Michael Vick, Troy Smith, Kellen Clemens
The best of the clear backups. And Kellen Clemens. (Vick is not worth drafting.)
Last year was supposed to be the year of the quarterback in drafts. Everyone talked about how safe high quarterback picks were. Then Bernard Pollard happened.
There are compelling arguments for and against taking a quarterback early in drafts. Tom Brady's knee not withstanding, they are usually safer picks than running backs. But position scarcity devalues quarterbacks because there are so many quality options, and you only need to find one to start each week. No matter where you draft them, Brady's injury is a reminder of how important your QB2 position is.
One reason we like quarterback value this year: after Brady's injury last year, the top three are going for relatively cheap prices. You should be able to find a quality starter at a cheap price as long as you pay attention.
Tier One: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning
The big three. There isn't a lot of separation within this group, even though Brees will often go a round higher than the other two. The Saints are likely to throw less, but he's still the favorite to lead the league in attempts and yards. Brady is the riskiest pick, but has the highest ceiling, only two years removed from throwing 50 touchdowns. He's looked good, not great, in the preseason. (We worry about not stepping into throws.)
Manning is the safest pick, the equivalent of a comfortable old shoe. His lack of sizzle this season could make him the best value of this tier if he slips to round four. Again, there isn't a huge gap between these three.
We've seen Brady and Manning slip to the end of the third round, which is too far. They are better picks than many shaky second running backs and wide receivers. Brees is overvalued if taken in the top-15 picks.
Tier Two: Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo
It's odd to make a tier this small, but our projections had these two clearly above the rest of the QB1 field. Romo will be a good value outside the top-50 picks. He's been a fantasy star from day one and the impact of Terrell Owens' loss has been overrated. Rodgers looked fully formed in his first season as a starter. He has a creative pass-first coach and a great group of receivers. He's a very safe pick.
<!--RW-->Tier Three: Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub
As usual, it's not that hard to find a quality fantasy quarterback. That's why you don't need to reach for one too early in most drafts.
Rivers is rock solid, but his low attempt total erodes his margin for error. His touchdowns are likely to sink. McNabb looks primed for a huge season, but can be inconsistent week-to-week. Schaub will perform like a top-five player, but he's a big injury risk. And we don't want to overpay to count on Kurt Warner staying healthy again at 38 years old.</B>
These are the last of the quarterbacks we would consider every-week starters. If you take a quarterback from the top three tiers, taking a backup early is a luxury, not a necessity.
Tier Four: Kurt Warner, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Cassel
It's amazing how much talent there is outside of the top ten quarterbacks. All of these players have top-five potential, but aren't fully trustworthy.
The more we think about Warner, 39 and coming off hip surgery, the less excited we are. We'd put his over/under on games played around 13. Cutler could struggle initially in a new system with a poor supporting cast.
The Falcons will let Ryan throw more, but they will still be less aggressive than the average team. Palmer has topped the quarterback rankings before, but his elbow is a mystery and his supporting cast has been weakened. Still, we love his value based on where he's getting drafted. Huge upside for a cheap price.
Roethlisberger's career numbers have fluctuated wildly, so he's a good value coming off a down year. Don't worry about his offseason troubles. Cassel will throw plenty, but Randy Moss and Wes Welker didn't come with him to Kansas City. Still, we think concerns about his slow training camp are overblown. He's a fun boom or bust pick.
If you don't draft a quarterback in the first three tiers, make sure to get one here. It's not a bad idea to get two (or one from the tier below), and play the matchups. These aren't every-week starters just yet.
Tier Five: David Garrard, Trent Edwards, Kyle Orton, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselbeck, Brett Favre </B>
Garrard puts up steady weekly numbers, in part because of his running ability. He's a good player to pair with a boom-or-bust starter. Orton is a nice sleeper because of his teammates, coach, and schedule; don't overreact to his first preseason game.
Manning won't get you beat most weeks, but he'll suffer without Plaxico Burress. Edwards and Flacco are breakout candidates, but the receiver talent is much better in Buffalo. We like Buffalo's new no-huddle offense. Hasselbeck is likely to throw less than ever and is an injury risk. Brett Favre is just another guy in fantasy leagues and will get overvalued based on his name.
These are the best of the QB2s. Unless you get a quarterback from the top tier, you will ideally get your backup by this group.
Tier Six: Jake Delhomme, Shaun Hill, Brady Quinn, Marc Bulger, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell, Kerry Collins, Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford
Delhomme is in decline, but he will get you by as QB2s. Hill is likely to suffer with Mike Martz leaving town, and is facing heat from Alex Smith. Quinn is our favorite value pick in this tier, and will move up a few slots when he secures the Cleveland starting job.
Pennington and Collins could face threats to their jobs if they don't play well. Stafford and Sanchez aren't worth the risk as rookies.
If you don't get your QB2 before this tier, there's no need to rush to draft one of these guys. A few should be available very late.
Editor's Note: For more great daily info, follow Gregg Rosenthal, Evan Silva, Chris Wesseling, and Rotoworld football on Twitter.
Tier Seven: Byron Leftwich, Derek Anderson, Luke McCown, Alex Smith, Chad Henne, Daunte Culpepper
Leftwich will move up into the middle of tier six if he wins the Tampa. Anderson would be worth a look late in drafts if he can upset Quinn to start in Cleveland, which looks unlikely. Henne and Smith would be intriguing if they rose on the depth chart later in the year.
Tier Eight: Sage Rosenfels, Vince Young, Pat White, Matt Leinart, Seneca Wallace, Jeff Garcia, Colt Brennan, Michael Vick, Troy Smith, Kellen Clemens
The best of the clear backups. And Kellen Clemens. (Vick is not worth drafting.)
